Iran continues to flout the will of the international community as it moves closer to attaining the technological know-how to build a nuclear bomb and the ability to deliver it. The international community has taken important steps to make it clear to Iran that this dangerous development which directly threatens Israel, moderate Arab states, Europe, and the regional strategic balance will not be tolerated.
The November 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities (NIE) confirmed the existence of a covert Iranian program to develop ability to equip a missile warhead with a nuclear bomb. Although the NIE concluded that Iran halted this program in 2003, it goes on to state that Iran's development of highly enriched uranium, the most important component of a nuclear weapon, continues to make significant progress. Many leading experts have cautioned that NIE should not be considered as the basis for concluding that Iran has abandoned its ambitions to obtain a nuclear weapon capability.
What's the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program?
Iran's clandestine nuclear activities stretch back decades and international concern has been mounting it is approaching a "point of no return" – the point at which Iran has the ability to enrich uranium to weapons grade levels.
Iran is one of the original signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which has been in force since 1970. Iran claims that it is developing a nuclear program for domestic energy use, as it is permitted to do under the NPT, in order to supplement its oil resources. However reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) say that the agency cannot verify the "peaceful nature" of Iran's program, and that it found documents that show a possible 'military nuclear dimension.' The November 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran (NIE) reported that Iran is continuing to aggressively develop its uranium enrichment program, which could be used to fuel a nuclear weapon. Developing the fissionable material – plutonium or highly enriched uranium – is the most critical and difficult piece in the development of a nuclear weapon. Low levels of enriched uranium are used to fuel civilian-use nuclear reactors, while highly enriched uranium can be used to fuel a nuclear bomb. The NIE concludes that "Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so." Analysts assert that Iran's enrichment activities are not necessary for a peaceful nuclear program.
Experts predict that if Iran continues its development of nuclear material at its current rate it may have a usable nuclear bomb, and the ability to deliver it to target, within three to eight years. Some estimates say Iran may have this capability as soon as the end of 2009.
To date, Iran has converted yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas, which are now fueling the centrifuges in its main nuclear facility in Natanz. Experts say that 3,000 working centrifuges, spinning nonstop for a year could enrich enough uranium to power an atom bomb. Iran is said to be aiming to have as many as 54,000 workable centrifuges.
Other intelligence reports add to the international alarm over Iran's intentions. The NIE report states that Iran had a secret nuclear weapons program from the late 1980's through 2003 directed by the "Iranian military entities working under government direction." Israeli reports indicate that Iran may have briefly closed down this project in 2003, but it has since resumed operations. Iran has never acknowledged the existence of this program. Other sources report that Iran bought documents from Abdul Qadeer Kahn, the founder of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, which provide instructions on developing the core of an atom bomb. Iran also has a heavy water production facility at Arak, which, it is believed, is being used for the production of plutonium. Russia built a $800 million nuclear power plant at Bushehr (in December 2007 Russia transferred fuel for the reaction) and helped train 700 Iranian nuclear engineers.
Why is Iran's nuclear weapons program a problem?
Iran's regime is a source of extremism and destabilization in the region and around the globe. It has defied the international community with its support for terrorism and cultivation of extremist forces. It has thumbed its nose at international efforts to ascertain the extent and purpose of its nuclear program. Its leaders have repeatedly called for Israel's demise and have propagated base anti-Semitism, including the denial of the Holocaust. There is consensus in the international community that nuclear weapons in the hands of this increasingly radical and reckless regime would lead to a dangerous geo-strategic shift in the Middle East, potentially creating a nuclear arms race in the region, would bolster Iran's aggressive and destructive foreign policy, and would represent a direct and existential threat to Israel and other countries in the region;
Didn't the National Intelligence Estimate conclude that Iran abandoned its nuclear weapons program?
Following the release of the November 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities (NIE), headlines focused on the reports judgment that Iran halted its secret nuclear weapons program in 2003. However, while the report states (with "moderate-to-high confidence") that "Iran does not have currently have a nuclear weapon," the NIE is only "moderately confident" that "Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007 . . ." and goes on to state that "… we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons." In reaction to the NIE, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak stated that Israeli intelligence indicates that in 2003 Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program "for a certain period of time," but since then it is "apparently continuing its program."
Moreover, the NIE conclusions demonstrate that Iran continues to be a threat. The report states that "Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so." The NIE confirms that Iran continues to work on developing the most critical element of any nuclear weapon, enrichment of uranium. The report notes "[W]e assess centrifuge enrichment is how Iran probably could first produce enough fissile material for a weapon, if it decides to do so. Iran is proceeding with its centrifuge enrichment activities, and has made "significant progress" in installing centrifuges at its facility in Natanz, albeit while encountering some technical challenges. The NIE judges with "high confidence" that Iran has not yet produced "sufficient amounts of fissile materials" for a nuclear weapon. The report states however, that it "cannot rule out" that Iran has acquired, or may acquire, such materials – or even a nuclear weapon – from abroad.
What has the international community done to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program?
The international community has long sought a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear weapons program, but efforts have been frustrated by Iranian intransigence and defiance toward the international community.
The so-called EU3 – France, Britain and Germany – undertook efforts to persuade Iran to provide more transparency and accountability for its nuclear program. In the 2004 Paris Agreement, Iran ostensibly agreed to a number of measures to abide by the terms of the NPT, which would permit it to develop a nuclear program for civilian purposes only and to suspend uranium enrichment. The agreement fell apart upon the election of President Ahmadinejad.
In September 2005, the IAEA declared that Iran was in "non-compliance" with the NPT due to its ongoing uranium enrichment activities, and recommended that the issue go to the United Nations Security Council. In July 2006, Russia and China, who had long resisted taking action against Iran, joined the rest of the U.N. Security Council in ordering Iran to halt its development of nuclear weapons or face sanctions.
The U.N. Security Council unanimously voted to impose sanctions on Iran in December 2006. The sanctions, which were passed as Resolution 1737, ban the supply of nuclear-related materials and technology to Iran and freeze the assets of individuals and companies with links to Iran's nuclear program. The Security Council proceeded to tighten its sanctions on Iran in March 2007 due to Iran's failure to respond to Resolution 1737. The resulting Resolution 1747, extended the U.N.'s initial set of sanctions, calling for a ban on the import/export of Iranian weapons and extending the freeze on assets that was already in place.
Iran continues to reject these resolutions and the Security Council is considering imposing additional sanctions directed at enhanced monitoring of Iranian nuclear activity and ending its nuclear enrichment program.
The United States already imposed tight sanctions on Iran. Diplomatic relations ended and sanction first applied following the seizure of the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979. Additional sanctions were imposed given Iran's status as a state-sponsor of terrorism and its development of weapons of mass destruction. With U.S. encouragement, many countries and banks, particularly in Europe, are beginning to enact limits on financial transactions with Iran.
Have international sanctions had an impact?
Iran enjoys large revenues from its oil and natural gas reserves and continues to conduct trade with Russia, China, India and many other countries worth billions of dollars. At the same time, the Iranian economy has proved vulnerable. It is suffering from high inflation and a high rate of unemployment. There have been numerous reports of increasing public discontent with the cost of living – despite the government spending $60 billion on subsidies. Additionally, many international investors have stayed away from Iran – partly due to U.N. sanctions and partly due to the economic instability in the country.
What Kind of Regime Governs Iran?
Since the revolution which overthrew the monarchy in 1979, Iran has been run by an Islamist regime which has violently suppressed internal dissent. During the 1990s, there were cautious hopes that Iran was embarking on reform, but these were dashed in 2005 when Ahmadinejad became President. Both Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's powerful Supreme Leader, are uncompromising hardliners.
Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism, providing financial support and training for organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and others, and is believed to be behind many Shiite insurgents in Iraq. Iran is responsible for the bombings of the Israeli Embassy (1992) and the Jewish community center (1994) in Buenos Aires, Argentina, which killed over 200 people and wounded hundreds more.
President Ahmadinejad has threatened to wipe Israel from the map and denies that the Holocaust happened.
Iran has drawn strong criticism from human rights groups and democratic states for its treatment of women and minorities, its practice of torture and arbitrary arrests and its denial of basic civil rights, such as freedom of speech and assembly.
