The post-Oct. 7 Israel-Hamas war placed Arab normalization with Israel at a critical juncture like never before, risking past achievements, recent progress and future prospects.
First, the Oct. 7 massacre perpetrated by Hamas wasn’t just an outburst of antisemitic hate by an Islamist terror organization seeking to exterminate Jews. It also served as a warning sign of the lengths to which the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies would go in order to thwart the prospects of Israeli normalization efforts, including with Saudi Arabia for which the basic framework was, according to senior US officials, in the works right before the Hamas attack.
Emboldened by the Iranian regime, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis of Yemen are now united in their efforts to form a strategic stranglehold around Israel to block any new moderate alliances from forming in the region.
Second, the current war has had a corrosive effect on Israel’s longstanding peace treaties with both Egypt and Jordan.
The mass flight of Gazans to Egypt’s border and the impending Israeli military action in Rafah has Egypt concerned at the specter of Palestinian evacuees fleeing into Egypt and violating its sovereignty.
While these peace treaties have not generated a strong people-to-people (p2p) engagement, they have been a stabilizing element for the region. The above mentioned developments – along with the already rampant anti-Israel sentiment in both Egypt and Jordan – pose a concrete threat to the monumental achievements Israel’s peace treaties with its Arab neighbors represent.
Third, the raging antisemitism worldwide, including featured in Arab media, as well as attempts by Muslim world leaders to fan the flames of hatred, all risk rolling back the incremental progress made in recent years, mainly in the form of the Abraham Accords. Anti-Israel rallies have already taken place in Bahrain and in Morocco, an unusal occurance in those countries.
This perfect storm necessitates responsible leadership, moral clarity and diplomatic prudence on the part of Israel, its Arab allies and the international community as a whole.
As Israel exercises its right to self-defense in the aftermath of Oct. 7, it must continue to work to safeguard its existing peace treaties as the strategic assets they are. Notably, the UAE and Bahrain both remain committed to the Accords, and indications are that Saudi Arabia might be open to normalizing ties with Israel under certain conditions.
On their part, Jordan and Egypt would be wise to view their alliance with Israel as the key to any moderate coalition against the aggression of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies, and be fully cognizant of the benefits their peace with Israel entail for them.
Finally, both those countries shouldn’t suffice with a so-called “cold peace” with Israel, but rather look to countries like the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, where a warmer, p2p focused peace, has become a staple of the relationship. One example of this was last year’s establishment the Manara Center in Abu Dhabi (of which ADL is a flagship partner), which works to promote coexistence initiatives across the region. While governmental level engagement and security cooperation are certainly important, Egyptian and Jordanian ties with Israel would also benefit from this type of p2p engagement, leading to warmer and more meaningful cross-societal relationships.